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In 2016, Republican President Donald J. Trump was elected to office after eight long years of the Obama Administration. This election sparked many controversies about the maintenance of the sanctity of democratic elections and his tenure till now has witnessed some of the most serious allegations made against a POTUS in the history of the United States. However, Trump's hardline approach in both domestic as well as international politics in the past 4 years has resulted in both fruition as well as diplomatic setbacks.
The cornerstone of President Trump’s agenda was to put ‘America First’, bring manufacturing jobs back to America, and ‘Make America Great Again’. Trump, throughout his tenure, has mocked and criticized past administrations and corporations for failing to protect American interests and allowing ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power to shift from America to Asia. As Donald J. Trump’s first-term comes to a conclusion, in this two-part series, we at Indianaut wish to highlight how relations between the US and India have fared under President Trump. These articles analyze the Trump Administration's approach towards India in matters of international security and economy.
Part 1: On Trump’s Economic Policies vis-à-vis India
Part 2: On Trump’s Foreign Policies vis-à-vis India
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) aimed at building stronger linkages with the Asian markets and prevent China from hegemony in the South Asian region. Obama administration was fairly clear about the intentions behind TPP and even though India wasn’t a part of the TPP, it could be a major player in combating the rising Chinese threat. The TPP accounted for 40% of global GDP and 1/3rd of global trade. Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP was met with mixed emotions. Donald Trump cited several reasons for the withdrawal. He stated the number of jobs, wealth, and income given away during their time in the TPP is unprecedented and is most likely to be worse if TPP isn't stopped. He believes USA’s trading partners are shipping cheap subsidized goods into the US markets while putting tough barriers on US exports along with an international commission whose decisions the US can't veto. Further, he declared TPP an attack on American businesses and accused Japan of manipulating its currency for trade benefits which a TPP side agreement prohibits.
But what does this mean for India and its trade relations? India found itself at ease after the US withdrew from the TPP because of decreased pressure on them to sign bilateral and regional FTAs to compete with other mega-regional trade pacts signed. India now focuses more on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to advance its trade interests however analysts argue that TPP is a much better trade agreement unlike the RCEP focuses on a wide variety of issues like the environment, state ownership of firms, labor rights, and Intellectual Property. While China is a part of RCEP, it already influences economic dominance in trade deals, and with doors wide open for Beijing to join TPP, China could most likely become a regional economic bully if it joins the TPP.
After Trump pulled out of the US-Iran nuclear deal, Washington D.C. wasn't hesitant in imposing strict sanctions on Iran to cripple its economy and reduce its crude oil exports. Major buyers of oil from Iran were given a 6-month waiver post-sanctions, which included India. However, in 2019, India stopped importing oil from Iran to comply with US sanctions despite Tehran being a supplier of 10% of India’s crude oil needs.
US warned Indian companies that if they continue to import from Iran, secondary sanctions would be imposed on them amounting to be taken out of the SWIFT International Banking system and freeze on dollar transactions and US assets. These warnings had crucial repercussions on Indian foreign policy in the Gulf.
India’s bid to develop the Chabahar-Zahedan Railway project was considered a major win for New Delhi. A huge pool of investment was made in the project by India to safeguard its interests in the Gulf of Oman because of the rising developments in Gwadar port under the CPEC. Gwadar port’s development is most likely to threaten India’s maritime security in the Arabian sea and a major chunk of energy and oil import which comes through the Gulf of Oman. With fears of US sanctions leading to companies backing out of the Indian sponsored construction project, China's entry into the Chabahar port creates a major scare for New Delhi since Beijing now has easy access to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian sea.
Apart from sanctions on Iranian oil, earlier this year, the US imposed a new set of sanctions on Iran which will hit the Indian agricultural exports. The new set of sanctions prohibits Iran from making payments for its imports in foreign currency, that is, US dollars. Among this tug of war, India's payments on rice exports and sugar shipment to Iran had taken a plunge due to a lack of clarity on how the deal would be settled financially by the Iranian authorities.
The National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) and the National Security Strategy (NSS) have showcased significant shifts in US foreign policy towards the Indo-Pacific region. The NDAA authorizes $738 Billion for the fiscal year 2020 for expansion of the aircraft fleet and the F-35 program along with military missions to get a hold of the Indo-Pacific region. The NDAA is of specific interest to India because of its strategic component to combat Chinese challenge and maritime developments in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India faces the threat of China's string of pearls in IOR owing to developments in Sri Lanka, Maldives, and recently China's PLA navy developments in Djibouti that need to be countered to secure India’s maritime security and trade.
The NDAA enhances India’s capabilities to counter China and secure its strategic outposts in the IOR. The NSS aims at preventing unfavorable shifts in its balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. When it comes to India under the NSS, it is concerned with the balance of power vis-a-vis Southeast Asia to the Western Pacific Ocean. NSS might help India in protecting its maritime interests in the Gulf theatre by possible interceptions from China and choking Indian trade supply.
As China proceeded with limiting India's efforts in declaring Masood Azhar as a global terrorist at the United Nations by exercising its veto power, the relentless effort made by the US and other permanent members along with India led to China's defeat in its pursuit to block this move. China had proposed a technical ban on the proposal against Masood Azhar for the past three years and has resisted actions on several occasions since 2009 on technical grounds, stating that there isn’t any conclusive evidence and general opinion on the issue, thus helping Pakistan.
However, after the 2019 Pulwama attack, India, the US, Britain, and France become more aggressive towards this move and even threatened to put this resolution to a public vote, which could’ve been a major diplomatic setback for Beijing. Through sustained efforts of the US, India was able to get a major diplomatic win after China agreed to lift its objections against blacklisting Masood Azhar as a global terrorist under the UN 1267 Ban Committee.
Earlier in 2016, Trump’s jargon game imitating Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi intended to sway the Indian diaspora vote bank. Trump released a video message saying, “Ab Ki Baar, Trump Sarkar” before the 2016 US Presidential elections and since then, he has made sustained efforts to incline the Indian-American community towards his republican government. Events like Howdy Modi in 2019 were strategic keeping in mind the 2020 US Presidential elections since Indian-American vote bank matters a lot in winning the office. While the Howdy Modi event did create a lot of buzz among the Indian-American community, it was soon overshadowed by the enhanced restrictions on H-1B and other forms of visas.
This move has dented Trump's popularity among the Indian-Americans as the majority of them support Joe Biden, the Democrat party candidate, and his popularity has increased after nominating Sen. Kamala Harris, of Indian origin, for the position of VP. The upcoming election would be a test of Donald Trump’s leadership and his administration’s approach towards foreign policy and whether Indian-Americans prefer the democrat candidate over the republican or not.
Ayush Jha is a second-year undergraduate student pursuing B.A. (Hons.) Political Science Delhi College of Arts and Commerce, University of Delhi. He has an immense interest in international politics and economics and writes on these issues.